Northern Ireland Outdoors Forum - Hiking, camping and more

General => General Chat => Topic started by: Typo-On on November 22, 2011

Title: Preparedness
Post by: Typo-On on November 22, 2011
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Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: whoRya on November 22, 2011
Link not working.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: cerbera147 on November 22, 2011
Good to find another prepper  ;D

I listen to a great podcast called In The Rabbit Hole [on iTunes]. It's based around exactly what you said; not TEOTWAWKI but a natural disaster, job loss, etc. The guys that do it are in the US so it has a strong bias on guns and stuff but it's a great urban survival podcast.

http://www.intherabbithole.com/

Even carrying my EDC bag with me counts as does my car bags that are filled with stuff that I might need if stuck out in the car. In last year's bad weather I got a flat tyre on the way home from Dublin. I was able to get my warm coat, gloves and hat on with my head torch and change the tyre with ease. Imagine doing the same without the warm clothes or decent light  ::) I drove around during the snow with two tubs of grit and a large shovel in the boot  :D

Fortunately I was unaffected by the water disaster but definitely see the need of storing some. The NI Survival guys gave me a great idea; they had two huge water cooler bottles. Just need to find some. We are unlikely see any true natural disaster but it would be nice to fully prepared if we see a winter like last year come along.

The zombie apocalypse is great for grabbing people's attention. The US Centre for Disease Control did a Zombie Survival Guide; very clever. Basically the same rules for surviving any disease outbreak or similiar situation  ;D
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: cerbera147 on November 22, 2011
prepdar  :D

Great article; sending it to my Kindle now.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: whoRya on November 22, 2011
I'll be one of the dudes that goes early on, not much prolonged suffering or cowering in basements.  Just take the zombies on and go out in a blaze of glory.  Mind you I don't fancy joining their ranks.

In reality for a more likely scenario, I'll probably just be the one standing at the back of the water queue, freezing cold and a bit pissed off.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: cerbera147 on November 22, 2011
I recommend Neil Strauss's book Emergency. An interesting read of one man's journey to survive. Obviously he has more money than the ordinary man on the street but still an good read. Finally available on Kindle; I read mine on a PDF file  ::)

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Emergency-Story-Dangerous-World-Alive/dp/1847675271/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1321970281&sr=8-1
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on November 22, 2011
Where I live, there are shops and I go buy something when I need it.

Main water disruption is just a temporary thing. Yep, no showering etc is a pain.
 
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: cerbera147 on November 22, 2011
Most shops even the supermarket only hold about 72 hours of stock; in an 'emergency' situation that could empty very quickly  :-\

The warehouses that supply them hold a similiar amount and as we get a lot of product from the mainland it would take very little to disrupt that supply.

Weren't there people with no water for several weeks last Christmas?

Edit: TypoOn beat me to it lol.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: twentyclicks on November 22, 2011
Interesting booklet - a sensible tone as you say and appropriate for the UK.

At home I certainly have most things in my camping supplies, even food wise there's always a bag of lentils, flour or a christmas pudding lurking. The garage freezer is always stocked and although the power may go out, if it's because of winter weather the freezer will stay cold.
I could do with being a little more organised with my documents & belongings though so I could grab them quickly if needed (like a fire)... most things are replaceable, but some aren't.

Belvoir forest is down the street, Sainsbury's & M&S up the street and Annadale allotments around the corner  ;)
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: RedLeader on November 22, 2011
I've been leaning towards the prepper ideal lately (if not full blown survivalism). We got totally caught up in the water shortage last year and once you haven't had a flushing toilet for 3 days you realise how totally dependent you are on services provided by others. We don't have an open fire so without water and power I'd have to consider eating the older neighbors within a day or two. It wouldn't take me long to get through the odds and sods of camping stove fuel I have and we tend to live week to week shopping wise so food would be short withing days.

Decent solar flare and you could be without power for a few months. Living in outlying areas might be okay but in the bigger towns / cities I would dread to think how quickly chaos would ensue.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Fred on November 23, 2011
Ive never considered myself to be a "prepper", I think the term "self reliant" is more appropriate. Anyone who has lived through the worst parts of the troubles should have learnt to cope with disorder and interruptions to public services. For example...

I keep typically two weeks of tinned or dried food in the house, taking advantage of those bulk buy offers.
I have a fire evacuation plan, smoke detectors, etc.
I have clean vessels on hand if I need to stock up on water at short notice.
I use bottled gas for cooking so there is always several weeks supply on hand.
I have an open fire which can burn wood if I have to.
I have an emergency leaving home plan, important documents organised, etc.
I have the tools and practical skills to deal with many repairs without outside help.
I dont have guns, NBC suits or an underground bunker.

These measures would carry me through a disruption of a couple of weeks, after that I would be relying on outside help.
During last winter, I lived comfortably and enjoyed the experience while most people that I knew were suffering to some extent and found the weather situation stressful.

Fred
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Paul72 on November 23, 2011
I've been reading this post with interest and I'm thinking it's not a bad idea.  I certainly will be putting things in my car in case i get stuck although I'm reluctant to keep food in it due to a previous problem of mice getting into it!
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Spud on November 23, 2011
Ive never considered myself to be a "prepper", I think the term "self reliant" is more appropriate. Anyone who has lived through the worst parts of the troubles should have learnt to cope with disorder and interruptions to public services. For example...

I keep typically two weeks of tinned or dried food in the house, taking advantage of those bulk buy offers.
I have a fire evacuation plan, smoke detectors, etc.
I have clean vessels on hand if I need to stock up on water at short notice.
I use bottled gas for cooking so there is always several weeks supply on hand.
I have an open fire which can burn wood if I have to.
I have an emergency leaving home plan, important documents organised, etc.
I have the tools and practical skills to deal with many repairs without outside help.
I dont have guns, NBC suits or an underground bunker.

These measures would carry me through a disruption of a couple of weeks, after that I would be relying on outside help.
During last winter, I lived comfortably and enjoyed the experience while most people that I knew were suffering to some extent and found the weather situation stressful.

Fred

good post
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Oisín on November 23, 2011
Enjoyed this post.

"Be prepared" - words of wisdom.

I only have a few things set by for emergencies, but its always something I thought that when I got a house of my own I would really kit it out.

I like the idea of having a big well or water source for emergencies, and having lots of fire wood in stock. Being totally independant is a cool idea, but the reality would be much harder I'd imagine.

If I was going to buy a list of things they would include the following:
-Massive bulk of water
-Long life food
-Proper clothing (cold weather etc)
-Some form of axe (cutting wood & zombies)
-Firewood & fuel of some sort
-Odds and ends (first aid kit, flares, knife,batteries)

I can imagine its alot easier saying htis than actually doing so, but sure, better thinking about it now as oppossed to when you need it.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Fred on November 23, 2011
I probably should have mentioned, with regard to food, I simply buy ordinary supermarket preserved food and just use up the oldest first. This way, theres always a standing stockpile on hand if I need it. I have never had the desire to buy specialist long life foods and hide them away.

Fred
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: RedLeader on November 23, 2011
This is what I was considering. Just having plenty of tinned/dried food about the place that we would normally eat rather than a cellar filled with 3 years rations. The trouble is when I suggest it to the wife she things I'm nuts.

I probably should have mentioned, with regard to food, I simply buy ordinary supermarket preserved food and just use up the oldest first. This way, theres always a standing stockpile on hand if I need it. I have never had the desire to buy specialist long life foods and hide them away.

Fred
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on November 23, 2011
I have never read such nonsense in my life.

I think you are all getting a little carried away with yourselves.

You all must be still living in the nuclear 60's. Next thing you will all be building underground bunkers

Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: RedLeader on November 23, 2011
You may have missed the point, the first post patiently explains why this is not the case.

I have never read such nonsense in my life.

I think you are all getting a little carried away with yourselves.

You all must be still living in the nuclear 60's. Next thing you will all be building underground bunkers
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on November 23, 2011
I have read the posts. Yes someone said they live on an island, which I presume is not Northern Ireland island. That I accept is a real need for stocking supplies for winter in the event the boat cannot get there. But that is real island life.

Living in and around towns and stocking up I do not think is necessary. Firstly, you will not even be able to store enough water for any long period of time. Borewell's need a licence and cost a fortune and are regulated. Rainwater harvesting is fine for flushing toilets etc.

As for food, stores will get food delivered. I can live without fresh bread. The amount of food wasted is a disgrace. People consume, consume, consume. The weight of some people, they could go months without eating.

We do not suffer from severe weather conditions. We are fortunate in that way.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: RedLeader on November 23, 2011
You're still confusing survivalism with preparedness. Having some extra food about in case you can't get out of the house for a few days or keeping emergency supplies in the car in case you get stuck in the snow doesn't seem like nonsense. Certainly I was glad to have thought ahead last year when the water was off for 4 days. No-one's digging wells, just thinking ahead.

I have read the posts. Yes someone said they live on an island, which I presume is not Northern Ireland island. That I accept is a real need for stocking supplies for winter in the event the boat cannot get there. But that is real island life.

Living in and around towns and stocking up I do not think is necessary. Firstly, you will not even be able to store enough water for any long period of time. Borewell's need a licence and cost a fortune and are regulated. Rainwater harvesting is fine for flushing toilets etc.

As for food, stores will get food delivered. I can live without fresh bread. The amount of food wasted is a disgrace. People consume, consume, consume. The weight of some people, they could go months without eating.

We do not suffer from severe weather conditions. We are fortunate in that way.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Oisín on November 23, 2011
I have read the posts. Yes someone said they live on an island, which I presume is not Northern Ireland island. That I accept is a real need for stocking supplies for winter in the event the boat cannot get there. But that is real island life.

Living in and around towns and stocking up I do not think is necessary. Firstly, you will not even be able to store enough water for any long period of time. Borewell's need a licence and cost a fortune and are regulated. Rainwater harvesting is fine for flushing toilets etc.

As for food, stores will get food delivered. I can live without fresh bread. The amount of food wasted is a disgrace. People consume, consume, consume. The weight of some people, they could go months without eating.

We do not suffer from severe weather conditions. We are fortunate in that way.

Islands-
Last time I checked Great Britain consisted of two main islands?

Water-
I think that it is fair to say you could live of 500ml of water a day? (Roughly I'm just estimating) I'm sure I could fit 3 months worth or drinking water  in my wardrobe, never mind a house's garage etc. It's only 70 odd bottles of water, and thats worst case scenario.

And I can remember seeing 12 or 18 multipacks in pounland before - So there is, what, £6 to ensure your loved ones dont go thirsty?  You can hardly be bad to that.

Weather-
It doesnt need to be severe to disrupt lives, anything below zeroo and there can be frozen pipes, there is an elderly woman without water until someone fixes it..

I think the whole idea of this post is to state that we should take precautions and not be caught out, the same way we bring spare clothes when camping incase our clothes get wet. I feel you have looked at this from the wrong angle, its not preparing for war. Its preparing for the everyday.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: surfnscenic on November 23, 2011
I really like this post, it’s practical, thought provoking and not beyond the realms of possibility/probability.  Just looking at last winter is an example of how some simple straightforward measures could help relieve some of the hardship that would otherwise be endured.

It doesn’t take much to knock this place into a state of utter uselessness.
Taking the attitude of people here (and elsewhere?) that it’s someone else’s fault and responsibility then expecting and even demanding  someone else to do it for them will be rife again if the winter is similar to last year.

People in other countries where winters are really severe must laugh at our pathetic whining and inability to make even the most simplest preparations:-

Some food and water, relative to the number of mouths and particular requirements,
A means of keeping warm should usual source be disrupted,
Alternative way to cook, even if it’s a lot less than another kitchen cooker,
Car preparation-servicing before it breaks down, some emergency kit-light, rope, shovel, old mats/grit,
Extra clothing in car.  Hot filled flask, some snacks.

The normal stuff that is already about the house can be utilised for best effect with a little imagination.  Anyone who involved in outdoors activities ought to be of the mindset to be self sufficient anyway.

I will certainly be refining my standby equipment so as make life as comfortable as possible.  On a point of helping others, I’ll always lend a hand to someone who tries to help themselves but the person who is dismissive and ridicules others for be prepared, well they can learn by experience.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Spud on November 23, 2011
good point, well made george!
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: wee gaz on November 23, 2011
supplies for a few days !! Better looking at it than for it
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: RedLeader on November 23, 2011
Suddenly all Dowser and Matts eulogising about multifuel stoves is starting to make sense. Small gas cans are going to run out quickly but petrol and diesel would be easy to come by :)
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Spud on November 23, 2011
Suddenly all Dowser and Matts eulogising about multifuel stoves is starting to make sense. Small gas cans are going to run out quickly but petrol and diesel would be easy to come by :)

As long as the tankers can get past the zombie hordes red, they would have to go mad max style!!  ;D
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: cerbera147 on November 23, 2011
I have never read such nonsense in my life.

I think you are all getting a little carried away with yourselves.

You all must be still living in the nuclear 60's. Next thing you will all be building underground bunkers

Great way to trash a thread  ::)

As Redleader said you're confusing survivalism with preparedness. You carry a spare tyre in your car 'just in case' and I'm sure you keep extra fuses / light bulbs in the house 'just in case'.

It's not about Mad Max, Red Dawn nonsense; it's about maintaining your lifestyle when things get crappy. Let's say I have two months worth of food and drink supplies and I've been topping up my electricity and gas so I've got about two months worth. In addition I've been a good saver and have a couple of months worth of salary in the Credit Union.
BANG; me and my missus both lose our jobs  :o OMG what will we do? Guess what, our preparedness has helped us maintain our lifestyle. We can feed ourselves, keep warm, live etc. It is designed to help you through a rough time. Hopefully you get the point.

I'm sure we've all heard about the ant and the grasshopper. Let's hope you have some kind and generous ants nearby ;)

What's the worst that can happen by some common sense prepping?
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Mourneman on November 23, 2011
Some really good advice mate,my hat of to you,serious,good forward thinking,but i do have to ask you a question.When i was a kid there was always one kid that had easter eggs for months after,were you that kid
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: LandyLiam on November 24, 2011
I'd have to put myself in the prepper category, I carry shovel, tools and sleeping bag in car during snow, i've always avoided a fully electric oven, i've one with a gas hob and uses bottled gas, its been invaluable over the many power cuts i've had (longest 3 days). I also keep plenty of candles in the house and a few wind up torches (much safer with the kids). I keep a few containers in the attic in case i need extra water, and i have sterilising tablets in case i have to get it from the river. Also keep a few jerry cans in case it gets mad maxy  ;D  I don't store food but if i know of an impending situation (snow/floods/strike/diesase/etc.) i get some extra stuff that i will use eventually anyway. I always fancied getting a wee generator but never quite got round to it, but i do have a caravan so i can be fairly self sufficient if necessary. I think if things got serious fuel would be a big issue, anything else will be available somewhere but you may have to travel to get it so its important to have the fuel to be mobile, if its not available withing driving distance then were all pretty much screwed anyway.







Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: cerbera147 on November 24, 2011
Some really good advice mate,my hat of to you,serious,good forward thinking,but i do have to ask you a question.When i was a kid there was always one kid that had easter eggs for months after,were you that kid

To be honest I'm nowhere near that state of preparedness but I totally agree with concept and am working towards it bit by bit  :)
If my Easter eggs lasted to Easter Monday I was doing something wrong  :D
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on November 24, 2011
Ok then, I have yet to read anyone saying they change the tyres in their cars to 'winter' tyres. I think its law in Canada, then again they get proper snow.

Seems to be a much more useful thing to do. Last year, muppets driving all over the road, most of whom didnt need to be on the road and the vast majority of cars not able to cope with the roads. Never mind the standard of driving!!!

In terms of buildings, keep your pipes insulated, open the loft hatch, keep background heat on if your away on holiday! Anyone keep spare fuel? petrol, oil?


 

Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Fred on November 24, 2011
Its not a good idea to store petrol for a long time. It deteriorates with age. There no problem filling a can if you anticipate short term problems though. Personally, I always keep a good reserve of central heating oil over the colder months.

Fred
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Oisín on November 24, 2011
I just think its a matter of not taking things for granted. E.g. The services of other people and products. And realising that you have to do some things for yourself.

Personnally its better to prepare for everything, then are you ever caught out?
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: twentyclicks on November 24, 2011
Its not a good idea to store petrol for a long time. It deteriorates with age. There no problem filling a can if you anticipate short term problems though. Personally, I always keep a good reserve of central heating oil over the colder months.

Fred

You can get fuel stabilizer - commonly sold for the likes of the 'lawnmower can' that gets left in the garage all winter. Not sure how long it is effective though. When I drove, and kept a 5L in the boot, I would just stick it in the tank and then refill it every now and then to keep the reserve fresh.

Dean's comment on winter tires is a good one. Much of the big-freeze transport problems are blockages caused by stuck vehicles or minor accidents that would be avoided with some suitable tires. Educating how to drive on snow is another matter entirely, but driver education is always bottom of the list for any road issues in this country ::)
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: LandyLiam on November 28, 2011
just spotted this on gumtree, only £2.50 per drum

http://www.gumtree.com/p/for-sale/20-litre-plastic-drums-kero-heating-oil-diesel-fuel/90442588

Quote
Quantity of 20 Litre High Quality Recycled Plastic Containers with lids

*Suit Homeowners for self filling heating oil / fuel etc.
(Many petrol stations now have a kerosine pump for your convenience - buy home heating oil in smaller, more affordable quantities as you need.

*Also suit merchants / cash and carry operators for filling to re-sell emergency fuel drums.

Price is £2.50 per drum collected.
Discounts available for bulk purchases (100 nr. on a pallet)
Delivery available at cost.

Based in Castlewellan, County Down
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on November 30, 2011
I still dont get this, but I am trying.

The batteries went on the pepper grinder and id no spare batteries.

Serves me right for not being a prepper  ;D
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: cerbera147 on November 30, 2011
I still dont get this, but I am trying.

The batteries went on the pepper grinder and id no spare batteries.

Serves me right for not being a prepper  ;D

Yes, very trying  ;)
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on December 01, 2011
yes i know I'm trying  ;D

Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: LandyLiam on December 02, 2011
Stormy sun could knock out power grids - report

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/stormy-sun-could-knock-power-grids-report-171703405.html

Quote
LONDON (Reuters) - An upcoming cycle of stormy solar activity risks causing damage to electrical transformers and threatening vulnerable energy infrastructure around the globe, a report by an insurance group says.

The sun follows a predictable 11 year activity cycle, with the next period of stormy activity expected to begin in 2012-13.

The report by German insurance group Allianz said a high impact solar storm, not easily predicted due to its recorded rarity, could cause blackouts and economic losses of over $1 trillion and that the worst case scenario would be even worse.

"What we're coming into at the moment is the bad (space)weather period," Jim Wild of Britain's Lancaster University, an expert in solar plasma physics, told Reuters.

A large explosion on the surface of the sun could release billions of tonnes of superheated magnetically charged gas at a speed of a million miles per hour, and when that gas hits the earth's magnetic field, it can trigger a big solar storm.

The severity of a potential disruption has made experts at insurance and national security institutions take notice.

"When you start to imagine not having electricity in a sizeable fraction of a country or a continent for weeks or even months ... it's serious business," Wild said.

SMALL LEAD TIME

The difficulty lies in predicting how often serious solar type events occur.

The small lead time given by satellites is also a problem for preventing solar storm damage, as currently no satellite is close enough to the sun to give more than an hour's warning, Wild said.

Updating the satellites to give the earth more preparation time would cost around $1 billion, he added.

Space weather is a relatively new area of study, with sophisticated observations going back only 50 years and lacking an international coordinated tracking system such as that found with normal meteorological weather.

"We have very little on a solar time scale," Wild said.

The most damaging storm in recent memory was a 1989 outage in Quebec, Canada, which affected six million people.

The first scientific recording of a large solar storm was made in 1859 by English astronomer Richard Carrington, who observed a white light explosion on the surface of the sun.

Wild said: "what they didn't know back then was why about two or three days later you could see the northern lights over Cuba and all of the telegraph system was disrupted by geomagnetic activity."

According to the Allianz report, an event on the same scale today would cause extensive damage to electrical infrastructure.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

NASA webpage with solar storm information: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010800/a010821/index.html

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

(Editing by Henning Gloystein and James Jukwey)


you've been warned  8)
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: specimanYak on December 03, 2011
This is an excellent thread, lots of tips and common sense information that will come in extremely handy on 'one of those days', thanks.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: Al Fresco on December 03, 2011
I agree this is an excellent thread, I think we all could do with being better prepared for emergency situations.
In my case I have carbon monoxide and smoke detectors in my house and a fire escape plan in place for my family. We also have enough tinned food to last a fornight, have a gas camping stove and candles and torches and batteries incase of power cuts, also as old fashioned as it may seem I still have  coal fire that heats our central heating, and believe me we were glad of it last year when everyone elses oil pipes were freezing we had constant heat. I carry a jerry can of diesel in the jeep, a small shovel, spare bulbs toolkit, hi-viz vest, torches, jump leads etc, as well as sleeping bag, waterproofs and water.
I have the family tent and sleeping kit placed at the hatch of the attic incase needed in a hurry.
Strangely until i read this thread I wouldn't have classed myself as a prepper or even thought about what i did in any other terms than common sense.
Perhaps I just presumed everybody took these precautions.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: NI Survival School on December 04, 2011
I agree an interesting thread all right. I see someone mentioned going with out food for months, has anyone actually tried going with out food for a while? As for 500ml of water doing u for a day, this isnt practical as after a period your body functions will start to become affected. Knowledge is the key as the saying goes give a tool and he will eventually break it, give him the knowledge of how to make it and he will never be without it. To really assess your preparedness test out some scenarios (not involving dropping nuclear bombs or zombies) Go for a couple of days without using electricity only then will you see the fine details that you miss with the theory side of things.

Just my pennys worth for what its worth.  ;)
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on December 05, 2011
be careful where you fix the carbon monoxide detector. All depends on the surrounding space.

carbon monoxide gas can rise or fall depending on the temperature, so the detector can in fact be a tlow level. There is a BS Standard on this.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on December 05, 2011
Stormy sun could knock out power grids - report

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/stormy-sun-could-knock-power-grids-report-171703405.html

Quote
LONDON (Reuters) - An upcoming cycle of stormy solar activity risks causing damage to electrical transformers and threatening vulnerable energy infrastructure around the globe, a report by an insurance group says.

The sun follows a predictable 11 year activity cycle, with the next period of stormy activity expected to begin in 2012-13.

The report by German insurance group Allianz said a high impact solar storm, not easily predicted due to its recorded rarity, could cause blackouts and economic losses of over $1 trillion and that the worst case scenario would be even worse.

"What we're coming into at the moment is the bad (space)weather period," Jim Wild of Britain's Lancaster University, an expert in solar plasma physics, told Reuters.

A large explosion on the surface of the sun could release billions of tonnes of superheated magnetically charged gas at a speed of a million miles per hour, and when that gas hits the earth's magnetic field, it can trigger a big solar storm.

The severity of a potential disruption has made experts at insurance and national security institutions take notice.

"When you start to imagine not having electricity in a sizeable fraction of a country or a continent for weeks or even months ... it's serious business," Wild said.

SMALL LEAD TIME

The difficulty lies in predicting how often serious solar type events occur.

The small lead time given by satellites is also a problem for preventing solar storm damage, as currently no satellite is close enough to the sun to give more than an hour's warning, Wild said.

Updating the satellites to give the earth more preparation time would cost around $1 billion, he added.

Space weather is a relatively new area of study, with sophisticated observations going back only 50 years and lacking an international coordinated tracking system such as that found with normal meteorological weather.

"We have very little on a solar time scale," Wild said.

The most damaging storm in recent memory was a 1989 outage in Quebec, Canada, which affected six million people.

The first scientific recording of a large solar storm was made in 1859 by English astronomer Richard Carrington, who observed a white light explosion on the surface of the sun.

Wild said: "what they didn't know back then was why about two or three days later you could see the northern lights over Cuba and all of the telegraph system was disrupted by geomagnetic activity."

According to the Allianz report, an event on the same scale today would cause extensive damage to electrical infrastructure.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

NASA webpage with solar storm information: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010800/a010821/index.html

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

(Editing by Henning Gloystein and James Jukwey)


you've been warned  8)

I am no expert on this now, but I remember the States is more vunerable to this than the UK grid. Can't remember the reason, but 2012 is supposed to be an 'active' year.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: RedLeader on December 05, 2011
2012 is supposed to be the peak of solar activity but it's a bell curve so it's high now and will remain high but dropping through 2013 and beyond. Also there's 2 cycles which is not mentioned by the Yahoo article. One cycle is over 80 odd years and it contains a shorter cycle of 12ish years. Each 12 year cycle peaks higher over the 80 years, and this is the peak of both cycles. These cycles have always happened but we've never been so dependent on electricity and electronics at this peak before.

I'm not aware of the US being any more likely to be affected than Europe - the big issue (as I understand it, I'm no scientist!) is of burning out pieces of equipment at power stations so all "developed" countries are at risk.

This is an interesting article that explains it all:
http://www.universetoday.com/14645/2012-no-killer-solar-flare/
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: dean1970 on December 07, 2011
Difficult to know what to believe, because it at times look like another end of the world conspiracy.

Anyway, point is, if its a bad as some are predicting, prepare for more than a couple of weeks without electricity and everything that uses it.
Title: Re: Preparedness
Post by: LandyLiam on December 07, 2011
well with it forecast to blow a hooley tomorrow it'd be a good time to start prepping  ;) i've just bought 4 bags o coal and 2 bags o logs, bring on the power cuts  ;D